Drift price

Kind of how I am thinking about @bulletxyz_ I essentially made a game theory payoff matrix for Bullets potential outcomes vs drift based on two factors 1) Exection & Liquidity - order matching speed, fill quality, depth of book 2) UI/UX - user interface, onboarding, and product experience. I assign probabilities to each outcome (based on my own judgment) and multiply them by the corresponding payoffs to calculate the Expected Value (EV) in each cell. Execution is the primary driver - Execution > Drift accounts for ~91% of total EV (8.45 out of 9.25). - If Bullet only matches Drift on execution, upside drops sharply to 1.0 EV. - If execution lags Drift, the model is near breakeven (-0.2 EV total). Takeaway: This is fundamentally an execution-led bet. UI is the performance multiplier - Better UI column = 6.9 EV (~75% of upside). - Equal UI is still positive (2.4 EV), but Worse UI erodes returns (-0.05 EV). Takeaway: Better UI amplifies returns but can’t replace execution leadership. Risk is concentrated in one quadrant - Most payoff comes from Better Execution + Better UI (5.2 EV) and Better Execution + Equal UI (2.6 EV). - Miss on either dimension and returns deteriorate quickly. Positioning View If Bullet beats Drift on execution, even with equal UI, the thesis holds. If execution is equal or worse, success hinges on UI dominance - harder to achieve and sustain. The dominant strategy is betting on better execution. Bullet’s single-sequencer architecture gives it control over block ordering, something Drift can’t currently match but is moving toward with BAM. This structural edge could make execution superiority more likely, tilting the EV heavily in Bullet’s favor while keeping downside risk contained. The obvious counterarguments are that Bullet lacks Solana Foundation backing compared to Drift, or that Hyperliquid - with builder codes and the upcoming HIP-3 - will dominate the market. Those points are valid; Hyperliquid’s moat is real and growing. But even assuming Bullet never becomes Hyperliquid’s next direct competitor, a ~$20M market cap still feels mispriced given the probability-weighted upside in the EV framework. The bet here isn’t “Bullet beats Hyperliquid,” it’s that Bullet can carve out a profitable niche on Solana if it sustains an execution edge over Drift - helped by a single sequencer (yes, additional risk here) that lets Bullet control block ordering, something Drift can’t yet match (though BAM narrows that gap). None of this is financial advice.