Elon Musk raises the thorny question: Can quantum computers crack Bitcoin?
Written by: bitcoinist
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
Elon Musk raises new questions about Bitcoin's long-term security in the context of rapid development of quantum computing. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX explored the possibility that Bitcoin's SHA-256 hashing algorithm could be cracked by a large number of subcomputers through its AI chatbot Grok.
His question comes as IBM unveils its major plans for its next-generation quantum system, Blue Jay, which is expected to achieve 2,000 global qubits by 2033.
According to Grok's analysis, the risk of quantum computers cracking Bitcoin's encryption in the next five years is extremely low, with AI estimating the probability to be close to zero.
But looking ahead to 2035, the probability will rise slightly, but it will still be below 10%. This data is based on expert assessments and current quantum computing power.
"Based on the 2025 assessment and expert survey by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) and IBM, the probability of quantum computers cracking SHA-256 through the Grover algorithm (which reduces the complexity of preimage search to about 2^128 operations) is close to 0% in the next 5 years and less than 10% by 2035. It takes millions of error-correcting ......" – Grok (@grok) August 2, 2025
Musk's concerns are not unfounded. Companies like Google, Microsoft, and others are developing their own quantum platforms (Willow and Majorana 1), sparking discussions about whether cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may be subject to these super-systematic attacks in the future.
Currently, most quantum systems have only about 1000 qubits, far fewer than the millions of error-correcting qubits scientists believe would require to crack Bitcoin's cryptographic defenses.
Grok added that stronger algorithms such as SHA-3 or SHA-512 could be used as alternatives if needed in the future.
Meanwhile, a recent analysis by global auditing firm Deloitte shows that quantum computers could soon threaten the security of the Bitcoin blockchain, with about 25% of Bitcoin currently at risk of being stolen by quantum attacks.
Analysts say that eventually quantum computers may be powerful enough to crack the entire transaction process. To protect against this risk, the Bitcoin network needs to use post-quantum cryptography. This is an emerging but complex solution that cryptographers around the world are currently exploring.
IBM's new system, Blue Jay, will have more than 1 billion gate operations, far exceeding the performance of current computers.
This is an important move for the company to strive to be at the forefront of quantum computing in the early 30s of the 21st century. As industry giants such as Google and Microsoft catch up, competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
Musk's concern is not motivated by academic interest. Tesla currently holds 11,500 Bitcoins, valued at approximately $1.3 billion at current prices. SpaceX also holds a significant amount, reportedly around $850 million in Bitcoin. Musk himself has confirmed that he holds Bitcoin in his personal portfolio.
Given the size of these holdings, it's no wonder Musk wants to address potential threats in advance. His tweet may seem lighthearted, but it shows the tech community's growing concern about the potential impact of quantum technological advancements on the cryptocurrency and financial sectors.