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Original article | 10x Research Compilation | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina) Translator | Jingle (@XiaMiPP) Bitcoin may seem calm, but the options market is sending signals that few people pay attention to. There has been a significant shift in capital flows - traders are constantly selling volatility, and position layout seems to be "calm". At the same time, key buyers who once dominated demand are restricted, and new beneficiaries are beginning to emerge. The divergence of compressed net asset value (NAV), accelerated stablecoin adoption, and tailwinds in liquidity is creating a market environment that has not been seen so far this year. The current consolidation is likely to be the calm before the storm. The question is: who will be on the right side of the next wave of the market? Bitcoin implied volatility (left axis) sharply declined (right axis) Core Perspective Bitcoin is never boring, and market sentiment is often changing rapidly. The rich data dimension makes the encryption market very valuable for research, and the logic of obtaining information advantages is similar to that of the traditional market. The difference is that the data in the crypto market is mostly public, and the key is whether you have the right channels (usually the professional paid version) and whether you can integrate it efficiently at the right time. Bitcoin and Ethereum options have experienced significant bullish repricing after last Wednesday's lower-than-expected PPI and Thursday's CPI in line with expectations. The market has priced in three rate cuts this year. Short-end implied volatility fell sharply, with BTC falling 6% on the September 12 expiration contract and ETH down 12%, and the overall term structure moving downward as a whole. The Risk Reversal indicator also rose, still at a relative low in late September, but not as pronounced as before. Interestingly, the weakening of Ethereum's forward upside slope in Q2 2026 indicates a decrease in traders' optimism for extreme long-term gains, even if short-term pessimism has been largely priced in. Bitcoin risk reversal (left axis) repricing to the upside (right axis) – a bullish signal Options and Capital Flow Over the past week, BTC options trading has been dominated by call selling, accounting for 27.3% of total notional volume; On the ETH side, put options were sold mostly, accounting for 32.2%. The market is clearly dominated by volatility sellers, which has depressed implied volatility, but also highlighted the lack of effective upside leverage deployment. Despite ETH's higher beta, traders prefer to sell on downside risk rather than upside, while on BTC, they are more inclined to see limited upside. MicroStrategy: Constraints of NAV compression MicroStrategy, one of the most active buyers of Bitcoin, is being constrained by net asset value (NAV) compression. We expected this back in the summer when volatility was lower. Since June 2025, MSTR's NAV multiple has decreased from 1.75x to 1.24x. We pointed out in June that when NAV approaches 1.5x, a company's ability to buy more Bitcoin will decline rapidly: financing capacity is limited, and retail demand for premiums tends to be saturated. It's important to note that we're focusing on NAV (corresponding market capitalization) rather than mNAV (slightly higher), which includes enterprise value. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Purchases (Left Axis, $1 Billion) vs. Net Asset Value (Right Axis) Aside from a few preferred stock offerings, MicroStrategy has hardly added any new Bitcoin this summer. In the three and a half months since June 1, the company has raised only $4.2 billion, well down from $5.4 billion on November 25, 2024, and $4.6 billion on November 18. The "golden age" of financing in the past is gone. Of the company's total $43 billion in financing, $19.9 billion came from premiums paid by investors — a value that has all but evaporated. Many investors who bought at the 2x NAV multiple took a beating. While Bitcoin has been trading sideways, MSTR's NAV has entered a clear bear market. In the crypto world, there seems to be a corner in a bear market. If Bitcoin volatility fails to recover significantly, it will be extremely difficult to rebuild the NAV premium. Meanwhile, MSTR's average daily turnover has dropped to $3.5 billion from a high of $14 billion in November 2024 and has recently approached $2.4 billion. The corporate model that relies on high multiples NAV and high volatility to extract value from retail investors is crumbling. In the past, high volatility attracted not only retail investors but also institutional investors, especially convertible bond buyers, due to the undervaluation of call options embedded in them. Now, with these two advantages disappearing and investors looking for alternative crypto exposure, the era of Bitcoin "vault" companies relying on equity financing to hoard coins on a large scale is difficult to reproduce. The drop in MSTR stock price from $400 to $326 is not surprising, and we have warned of correction risks in several previous reports. Now that the resistance has basically eased and NAV has been compressed to a reasonable level, MicroStrategy's return valuation relative to BTC is 22% lower, close to the historical bottom range. Technical indicators are oversold, and further downside is limited, even against our initial $300 target. MSTR vs. BTC Return to Valuation: Near the bottom MSTR price action Metaplanet: Attractive price We similarly took a bearish stance on Metaplanet in June, which has since plummeted 66% in the summer due to concerns about potential crypto tax policy changes in Japan, weakening its appeal as a Bitcoin alternative. Despite this, Metaplanet's NAV multiple is still at 1.5x (halved from 6x), and the stock price fluctuates wildly during the day. Driven by retail funds, the stock is still extremely unstable. But its market capitalization has gradually become more attractive, falling from $596,000 at the time of our bearish report to $173,000. Odaily added: At present, Metaplanet has seen a lot of trading volume for three consecutive days, but the price has not achieved a further sharp decline, and we may wait for a bottom structure to appear in the near future. MTPLF price chart Circle: Be the new winner In contrast, Circle, which we have favored recently, has fallen 63% from its highs. We had been waiting for it to fall back to around $100, triggering a buy signal when the stock price fell to $112 on September 9th. We also expect this week's inflation data to bring macro tailwinds and a squeeze on Bitcoin. Since the report was released on September 9, Circle has risen 19.6%. The reason is that the expectation of a Fed rate cut has boosted liquidity and accelerated stablecoin adoption. We reiterate a "buy" rating with a price target of $247. Circle's partnership with Finastra to integrate USDC into the global banking system further strengthens the adoption prospects. We are pleased to have captured this wave in advance and correctly predicted that the inflation data will turn macro sentiment from headwinds to tailwinds, driving the Circle rally and Bitcoin's upward attempt. It is worth noting that Circle even lags behind Coinbase in this round of pullback, while we believe Circle is more attractive and has a lot of room to make up for it. Coinbase (left) vs. Circle (right) Odaily Planet Daily added: Cicle (CRCL) stock price has achieved a significant breakthrough in volume on the current daily line, and it seems that it will enter an upward channel in the short term. CRCL Price Chart conclusion Behind Bitcoin's sideways movement, a deep shift in capital flow and position allocation is brewing, which may pave the way for the next round of upward movement. With MicroStrategy constrained and Circle gaining momentum, capital is flowing to targets with real opportunities. A large amount of volatility selling has depressed implied volatility, but it has made the market more prone to a short squeeze - because once the squeeze is triggered, the upside will be extremely violent. Circle's rally shows that once liquidity tailwinds return, the speed of sentiment reversal may be unimaginable. When the tide comes, some targets are destined to run faster than others.   Original link