August 3 Geopolitical Event Update:
1. Putin announced that in the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, discussions must be based on the foundational agreement from June 2024. The main conditions are the territories in Eastern Ukraine and that Ukraine cannot join NATO.
2. Under pressure from the US and Europe, India has compromised and purchased 7 million barrels of crude oil from the US and the Middle East, but subsequently, India stated that it would not give up buying Russian oil.
3. European countries have joined the Jordan-led airlift operation for humanitarian aid to Gaza for the first time.
4. After the visit of the Syrian Defense Minister to Russia, he stated that both countries want to move past the past and establish new relations. Previously, the two countries were in a state of deep cooperation.
5. Iran has firmly stated that there are enough scientists to restart the uranium enrichment program.
6. The US Pentagon announced that tests of the "Iron Dome missile defense system" will be conducted before 2028.
7. The US and Israel jointly issued a statement demanding Hamas's surrender and the establishment of a temporary government in Gaza led by the US; otherwise, Israel will launch a full-scale military operation.
8. Poland has once again purchased K2 tanks from South Korea.
9. Joint military exercises between China and Russia have begun in Vladivostok, focusing mainly on anti-submarine operations and joint defense.
Assessment:
Overall assessment indicates that the biggest potential geopolitical risk currently is the two US nuclear submarines. If it remains a verbal threat, it may be manageable, but if NATO's joint fleet is activated and Russia announces reciprocal forward deployments, it could lead to localized nuclear threats, reminiscent of the "Cuban Missile Crisis."
Syria and Russia have re-established contact, and the current tone of discussions may indicate that Syria is transitioning from dependency on Russia to a mutually beneficial stage, also suggesting that Syria is redirecting towards Russia after failing to establish cooperation with Israel.
As for India, it is somewhat unclear whether it is being tough or weak; it has done what it needed to do, leaving one confused.
Market data for August 3: Altcoins rebound, unexpected surprise, continue to observe sustainability!
1. The market capitalization has slightly increased, with #EHH altcoins showing a significant increase in market cap, and their proportion has risen. Short-term risk appetite has grown, while #Bitcoin's proportion has slightly decreased.
2. The decrease in trading volume is relatively small, maintaining a certain level of trading enthusiasm compared to Saturday, where the activity of altcoins today is quite good.
3. The on-site retained funds have increased by 400 million, totaling 273.9 billion.
4. USDT: Official website data shows a market cap of 164.894 billion, a decrease of 0.06 billion compared to yesterday. There was a small outflow of funds in the Asian market over the weekend, but the impact is minimal.
5. USDC: Data from the website shows a decrease of 0.17 billion in market cap. Funds in the US region continue to flow in, although the outflow is relatively small.
6. Looking at the altcoin heat map, large altcoins remain cautious, while some small altcoins are gradually becoming active.
Assessment:
Today's market data still surprised me a bit. I thought after experiencing a wave of macro negative news on Friday, the weekend market would be quite sluggish. Unexpectedly, some small altcoins have become active, which is a good signal.
Of course, large altcoins have not yet started, and we need to observe the trends of altcoins on Monday before making further judgments.
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