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Orange evening interpretation 7.30 At two o'clock in the middle of the night tonight, the FOMC interest rate decision is the decision, although the market has confirmed in advance that there will be no interest rate cuts, but this decision is definitely not so bland, even the Fed's mouthpiece Nick has come out in advance to get a preventive shot, saying that the Fed has been divided into three camps, namely those who support immediate interest rate cuts, waiting for more data to support it before deciding whether to cut interest rates, and the cautious faction that needs the market to show a clear economic recession. Two Fed governors, Bowman and Waller, will stand up and vote for interest rate cuts tonight, and there are only 11 people in this vote, so although CME expects the probability of a rate cut tonight to be only 2%, in fact, the probability of a rate cut is greater than 2/11, that is, there is at least an 18% probability of cutting interest rates, plus Trump has been putting pressure on Powell before, and Trump was still mentioning that the Fed must cut interest rates yesterday, so there are still points to look forward to tonight, of course, what is more important is Powell's 2:30 press conference. I think there is a high probability that there will be a clear expectation of interest rate cuts, if this is the case, it is good, and NICK also said that the internal division of the Fed because of the president is something that has not happened in nearly 30 years, and the Fed's FOMC meeting may mean the beginning of the collapse of its independence. Then there are the tariff negotiations, the negotiations between Europe and Japan are basically over, and now the United States has turned its head to the east, first of all, Russia, Trump lowered the ceasefire period between Russia and Ukraine from 50 days to 10 days, saying that if there is no ceasefire within ten days, a new round of tariff sanctions will come, and other countries that buy Russian energy will also be subject to tariff sanctions, which should be a point of China, which is a risk point in the market; Then there are negotiations with China, now China and the United States are conducting the third round of negotiations in Sweden, but before the meeting, China issued an announcement that the countermeasures have been extended for 90 days as scheduled, which means that there is no result in the short term, and the focus of the negotiations between the two sides is rare earths, chips, energy, as well as the purchase of crude oil from Iran, and the export of dual-use technology to Russia, but last night Bessant still said harshly, saying that China needs more tariffs to change the status quo, suspected of putting pressure on China, but this should not break out on the August 1 deadline; Then there is the fact that the negotiations with India are not going well, India is said to have suspended concessions to the negotiations, and the quasi-book should be dealt with high tariffs by the United States, with the goal of finalizing the agreement in September-October; South Korea should follow Japan's negotiation strategy and exchange investment for tax cuts, Canada's negotiations have not progressed, and August 1 will definitely be fruitless, but the market has expectations. On the whole, there is no big risk of short-term tariffs, and the only ones who may continue to fight tariff wars in the future are China and Canada, but it may be next month. Last night, all major currency stocks had a sharp correction, the main $BMNR $SBET $BTBT $BTCS $VAPE $WINT $NA $DFDV $MEIP $TRON $HYPD plummeted by 5-30%, and now the volatility of currency stocks is much greater than its corresponding cryptocurrency, such as SBET was still 40 dollars a few days ago, and now it is only 20, directly cut in half, BMNR also fell from 40 to 30, even Sister Wood was trapped, Sister Wood bought 4.1% of BMNR's shares, with an average purchase price of 38 dollars, and now it has fallen to 32, BMNR still had a riotous operation last night, saying that it spent 1 billion dollars to buy back its own shares, which is definitely bad for the treasury, and now SBET holdings have been 43W, and the lead of more than 600,000 BMN is not big, so it is better to be a treasury, the trend of MSR is very stable, and last night it was announced that it bought 21,000 flatbreads, spending 2.5 billion, the big brother is really infinite bullets. Other smaller copycat treasuries fell a lot last night, and even many treasury coins fell before the official announcement, which led to the meaning of crypto financial inventory, just like the old cat said, many copycats bought a shell on the US stock market, in fact, for shipment, because the depth on CEX is not enough to support the project party or the main force to ship, forced shipment will lead to the collapse of the project, in the past few rounds of bull market project parties because of the copycat cow, so the project party can ship smoothly, but the ability of leeks in this round of the market is too weak, Therefore, we must find another way to come out of the US stock market, so there are various altcoin crypto treasury operations, not that this treasury must be cut leeks, maybe this is just a tool, the project party may really control the currency price through backdoors, in fact, you observe the good copycats that have gone for so many years, such as $trx $bnb $ada $xrp Which is not a strong control, which is a good thing for the currency circle, after all, in the current environment of such relaxed supervision, the game will most likely continue to be played, Therefore, the shipment mentioned earlier is only the last retreat of the project party, and most of them will control the price of the coin like XRP before, so the crypto treasury is the embodiment of the strength of the project party, the market, and the market maker, which is why I have always said that if a copycat has neither ETF nor treasury, and there is no strong bank control, then this copycat is not worth buying at all, and buying this kind of currency is irresponsible for one's own property.