GM, A lot of people ask me whether the 4-year crypto cycle still exists. I won’t answer that right away because I’d rather walk through the evidence with you and let us find the answer together. This week, I had some deep conversations with serious crypto veterans. And one recurring idea kept coming up: the 4-year cycle is dead. If you’re still waiting for a magical halving pump or praying for another 100x bull season, chances are the market has already moved on without you. Because crypto no longer runs on a single clock. Crypto now runs on four simultaneous cycles, each with its own logic, tempo, and reward system: [1] Bitcoin Super Cycle I’ve been tracking capital flows closely and it’s becoming clear that the halving narrative has weakened. BTC is no longer a hype coin. It’s an institutional allocation asset. 🔸Retail is slowly exiting 🔸Meanwhile, ETFs, public companies, and macro funds are steadily buying Look at MicroStrategy or BlackRock. They’re playing a 10-year game, not a 10-month sprint. → We’ve entered a multi-decade cycle: 🔸Lower volatility 🔸Slower but consistent upside 🔸20–30% annualized ROI, similar to prime-era tech stocks Retail can’t stomach that timeline. So they rotate out—and miss the magic of compounding. [2] Meme Cycle – Attention is the New Capital Memecoins don’t follow tech cycles. They follow emotional liquidity. When narratives dry up, memes thrive. But the game has changed: 🔸From organic chaos to industrial-grade coordination 🔸Studio-made trends, bot-optimized entries, community-farmed exits If you’re an average retail trader? 🔸Your edge is shrinking. The window is closing. 🔸This game now favors those with capital, speed, and community networks. [3] Tech Narrative Cycle ZK, AI infra, Layer 2s... these narratives don’t die, they just go quiet while builders keep building. If you only chase memes, they’ll look dead. But if you follow Gartner’s Hype Cycle, this is rock bottom, the best time to accumulate. The pattern is clear: 🔸At the idea stage → overpriced 🔸At the execution stage → undervalued Those who buy during the death valley and hold for 2–3 years, through silence, ridicule, and capital drought, tend to 10x. [4] Narrative Micro-Cycles These are 1–3 month rotations. Every few weeks, a new hype train pulls in: 🔸RWA → DePIN → AI Agents → MCP → A2A → ??? Each narrative has a 30–90 day shelf life—just enough time for capital to front-run attention. The cycle is predictable: Concept → Funding → Amplify → FOMO → Overvalue → Rug or Retreat But here’s the alpha: if new micro-narratives build on top of old ones (e.g. MCP stacking on AI Agents), they can snowball into super narratives, like DeFi Summer 2020. Right now, I’m tracking the AI infrastructure stack closely: 🔸 MCP Protocol 🔸A2A communication 🔸Distributed compute + data + inference If these pieces loop into a cohesive flywheel, we may be heading into AI Summer next. So does the 4-year cycle still exist? I don’t think so. This market no longer moves in a single, unified rhythm. It’s a stack of overlapping games, each with its own players, timeframes, and win conditions. 🔸Some narratives play out over decades 🔸Others live and die in two weeks 🔸Some reward deep research 🔸Others reward instincts and timing My advice? Don’t blindly wait for halving. Don’t FOMO into meme tops. → DCA in when markets are silent, prices are low. → DCA out when capital and attention return. You don’t need to catch exact tops or bottoms, just need to understand the cycle you’re in and play accordingly. That’s how you stay ahead of 90% of the market.