Seeing Teacher Jason mention the topic of altcoins, I also want to say a few words. First of all, I completely agree that without a narrative, there is no rush into this market, especially when we can see that there is quite a bit of money involved with the listing of $CRCL. However, it cannot be ignored that when CRCL was rising, it was actually drawing liquidity from other cryptocurrency assets in the US stock market. At that time, both $MSTR and $Coin were declining, and the reason was that liquidity was not sufficient, and investors were reluctant to spread their eggs in different baskets.
The reason I say this is that the issue of insufficient liquidity is not only faced by altcoins in the cryptocurrency market, but also by altcoins in the US stock market, for example, the small-cap stocks represented by the Russell 2000 are also in a mess. Even if we don't talk about small-cap stocks, companies like Nike, McDonald's, and Lockheed Martin are not performing well either. Or to say, apart from AI, it is very difficult for other stocks to outperform the S&P 500.
Essentially, it still comes down to insufficient liquidity, and the reason for this lack of liquidity is not that there is no money in the market, but because we are currently in a state of monetary tightening. Many people are hesitant to invest money easily, which leads to a rush for "good assets," which is the issue that Teacher Jason mentioned: the better the asset, the more people buy it, while general assets receive little attention.
The essence is not that these assets are bad, but because there is no more attractive option like "sector rotation." This is related to investors' risk appetite; the lower the risk appetite, the less likely there will be an altcoin season, and the higher the risk appetite, the better altcoins and small-cap stocks will perform.
Many people now blame the inability of altcoins to rise on the lack of interest rate cuts and liquidity. They are eagerly waiting for the Federal Reserve to show mercy and bring forth a downpour of liquidity. However, I believe that even if interest rates are cut, altcoins won't see any significant improvement. Many of those hoping for rate cuts have developed a dependency on the events of 2021, where the massive global liquidity injection was a key factor in the bull market. But more importantly, there was a simultaneous surge of innovation in the crypto space, along with a strong belief in Web3 across various industries. The narratives of who can run faster and the crypto market being a big casino have taken root, and the competition is more about who can hold on longer with diamond hands. Therefore, after rate cuts and liquidity injections, there needs to be a reservoir to absorb it.
Is the recent bull market in crypto and stocks related to interest rate cuts? It's still due to the scarcity of assets. Why do many in the crypto space have such absurdly low estimates of Circle's market cap? Ultimately, it opened four times lower than expected, not because the entire US stock market's stablecoin concept can only buy Circle, but because in the crypto space, you can't even count the stablecoins available for purchase.
So even if liquidity is injected now, where is the reservoir? It's in BTC, with only a little trickling down to ETH and SOL. As for altcoins? "Finally, we've endured to the point of liquidity injection, let's hurry up and issue coins!"
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