No other meaning Boss Yi, you might as well learn a bit more Or hire a few kids with finance majors To avoid a liquidation of 5 billion dollars Just be aware that it’s still the money after leverage The actual margin is much less than 5 billion Ethereum could potentially rise to 4000 dollars But the motivation for the rise is definitely not to avoid this 5 billion liquidation Saying that BlackRock's purchases are stronger than the theory of a 5 billion liquidation Let me calculate how much actual net inflow is needed to reach 4000 The price increase of a coin does not require an equal amount of funds to flood in, because limited market depth, the existence of leverage, and thin order books can amplify price elasticity 1/ Historical estimation Based on experiences from the past few years: In a bull market, a net inflow of 1 dollar into crypto assets can potentially drive the market cap up by 10-25 dollars For ETH, a highly liquid coin, a conservative amplification factor is between 1:10 to 1:15 2/ Current ETH circulating market cap Assuming the total supply of ETH is about 120 million coins, the price from: $2800 → Total market cap = 2800 * 120M = 336 billion dollars $4000 → Total market cap = 4000 * 120M = 480 billion dollars Incremental market cap = 144 billion dollars 3/ Estimating required funds based on inflow multiples If we take: Fund amplification factor = 15 times Actual fund inflow ≈ Incremental market cap ÷ Factor ≈ 144 billion ÷ 15 ≈ 9.6 billion dollars To rise from ETH $2800 to $4000, it requires about 6 to 12 billion dollars of actual net inflow (depending on market structure and sentiment) A reasonable median value: ≈ 9 to 10 billion dollars of net buying To avoid a 5 billion liquidation, while the margin is far below 5 billion Spending 10 billion real dollars This is a bit much, right? To echo Ethereum could potentially rise to 4000 dollars But the motivation for the rise is definitely not to avoid this 5 billion liquidation Saying that BlackRock's purchases are stronger than the theory of a 5 billion liquidation.
The simplest reason for a bullish outlook on ETH is that there are $1.3 billion in short positions on CME, $1 billion in short positions on AAVE, and at least $3 billion across various exchanges, totaling $5 billion in ETH short positions that will be forced to cover. A short squeeze could push ETH to $3000, $3500, or even $4000, which is the core reason we are buying 100,000 ETH options.
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