No other meaning
Boss Yi, you might as well learn a bit more
Or hire a few kids with finance majors
To avoid a liquidation of 5 billion dollars
Just be aware that it’s still the money after leverage
The actual margin is much less than 5 billion
Ethereum could potentially rise to 4000 dollars
But the motivation for the rise is definitely not to avoid this 5 billion liquidation
Saying that BlackRock's purchases are stronger than the theory of a 5 billion liquidation
Let me calculate how much actual net inflow is needed to reach 4000
The price increase of a coin does not require an equal amount of funds to flood in, because limited market depth, the existence of leverage, and thin order books can amplify price elasticity
1/ Historical estimation
Based on experiences from the past few years:
In a bull market, a net inflow of 1 dollar into crypto assets can potentially drive the market cap up by 10-25 dollars
For ETH, a highly liquid coin, a conservative amplification factor is between 1:10 to 1:15
2/ Current ETH circulating market cap
Assuming the total supply of ETH is about 120 million coins, the price from:
$2800 → Total market cap = 2800 * 120M = 336 billion dollars
$4000 → Total market cap = 4000 * 120M = 480 billion dollars
Incremental market cap = 144 billion dollars
3/ Estimating required funds based on inflow multiples
If we take:
Fund amplification factor = 15 times
Actual fund inflow ≈ Incremental market cap ÷ Factor ≈ 144 billion ÷ 15 ≈ 9.6 billion dollars
To rise from ETH $2800 to $4000, it requires about 6 to 12 billion dollars of actual net inflow (depending on market structure and sentiment)
A reasonable median value: ≈ 9 to 10 billion dollars of net buying
To avoid a 5 billion liquidation, while the margin is far below 5 billion
Spending 10 billion real dollars
This is a bit much, right?
To echo
Ethereum could potentially rise to 4000 dollars
But the motivation for the rise is definitely not to avoid this 5 billion liquidation
Saying that BlackRock's purchases are stronger than the theory of a 5 billion liquidation.
The simplest reason for a bullish outlook on ETH is that there are $1.3 billion in short positions on CME, $1 billion in short positions on AAVE, and at least $3 billion across various exchanges, totaling $5 billion in ETH short positions that will be forced to cover. A short squeeze could push ETH to $3000, $3500, or even $4000, which is the core reason we are buying 100,000 ETH options.
159
144.36K
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.